Predictions For 2006- American League West

Yesterday, the Yankees lost their first spring training game 6-3. Andy Phillips contributed a home run, while Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small each pitched two innings of shutout ball. Damon, in his first official Spring Training game with the Yankees, went 2 for 3, both of his hits being solid and through the hole. Bernie Williams also looked good, as he contributed well at the plate and in right field. It was the first time he played a position other than center for over thirteen years.

However, Mike Myers, the submarine-throwing lefty that the Yankees acquired from Boston, couldn't hold the lead, as he gave up three runs. Myers will mostly be used to get one or two outs this year, but he didn't look confident or poised on the mound.

The Yankees have had a history of playing below-average in Spring Training (they were sub-.500 in 1998, when they won 114 games), and this by no means is a foreshadow to the season. Most of the Yankee starters were taken out by the fifth inning, and the game's main purpose was to scout younger players fighting for a spot on the roster. In fact, with the loss of Damon, Jeter, Bernie Williams, Al Leiter, and Alex Rodriguez, from now until the 20th of March, the Yankees will be without most of their usual players due to the WBC.

Today, the Yankees lost another heartbreaker, 11-10. Jaret Wright pitched two innings, giving up four hits and one run, but unfortunately the bullpen couldn't hold it. Ron Villone had a rough two thirds of an inning, as he allowed three runs, and Jorge DePaula also allowed three runs. Former twenty-game winner Scott Erickson also gave up two runs, although both were unearned. What does an 0-2 start tell the Yankees? Well, for one, the Yankees can't win without their big players. Ironically, their biggest player in the game was Melky Cabrera, who went 4 for 5. However, it also shows that the Yankees' bullpen still has the same problems. Wright's shoulder is still sore, Villone looked like he was a minor-leaguer, and Erickson would allow baserunner after baserunner to get on. If these problems persist, the Yankees are going to have some major problems. On the bright side, the offense picked up ten runs without Damon, Jeter, Rodriguez, Sheffield, or Matsui. The next game is against the Reds, with Randy Johnson starting. Hopefully, the Yankees can pick up their first win of the Spring Training season. Remember, it's only March.

And now, predictions for the American League West.

For several years during the beginning of this decade, the American League West was the most competitive league in the game. In fact, in 2001, Oakland won 102 games, but still finished fourteen games behind Seattle. The league was that good. However, Seattle faded, Oakland dismantled, and Texas never found pitching. Anaheim (or should I say, Los Angeles) has been the only team to emerge as the best in the league over the last few years. True, Oakland gave them a run for their money in 2004 and 2005, but Anaheim seems to always finish on top, or at least they have over the past three years. I believe this trend will change in 2006. Once again, the West will emerge as a competitive and intriguing league to watch, with Oakland and Anaheim grueling it out until the last day of the season. And with that, here is the order I believe the teams will finish in:

1) Oakland Athletics- 91-71

The Athletics were one of the best stories in baseball last year. Starting off terribly, they managed to rebound and almost take the division. I remember I saw a game in May where the A's were shutout 5-0, against Kevin Brown. Kevin Brown. With their best players being Eric Chavez, Nick Swisher, and Dan Johnson, the A's really had no one to count on. But then, their rookies began to perform. Swisher and Johnson proved they were capable of playing in the major leagues, and Huston Street went on to be one of the better closers in the game. Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Barry Zito, and Dan Haren also powered the rotation. At one point, the starters were 16-0 in a matter of twenty games. The A's are going into 2006 with a surge of confidence and with new players such as Esteban Loaiza, Milton

Bradley, and a healthy Bobby Crosby. Offensively, the A's have Ellis and Kendall leading off, with most probably Kotsay, Chavez, and Payton making out the heart of the order. Milton Bradely, Dan Johnson, and Nick Swisher will round out the order, with Crosby somewhere in the mix as well. Their starting rotation is undoubtedly the best in the division, with Zito, Haren, Blanton, Harden, and Loaiza. Their bullpen also has some strong arms. Kiko Calero, who was acquired in the Mulder trade, and Justin Duchscherer combined for an ERA less than three last season, and Huston Street is as good as they come- a 1.72 ERA as a rookie. In my predictions, I gave the Athletics and the Angels the same record, but in the end, I think Oakland has the advantage in the season-series, meaning they're the one's who I'll give the division to.

The Breakout Hitter- Bobby Crosby: .297, 23 HR, 96 RBIs
The Breakout Pitcher- Huston Street: 45 SV, 2.06 ERA

2) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim- 91-71

The Angels are a team that won't blow you away with their players. They just know how to win games. Other than Colon, Vlad, and K-Rod, the Angels team is mostly made up of young players, although they made some key signings to solid veterans over the offseason. For 2006, I'm giving the Angels the wild card (if you look at the A.L East Predictions, they win it by one game over the Red Sox). Offensively, the Angels have a gem in Chone Figgins, and I believe this will be a breakout year for him offensively and defensively. Orlando Cabrera and Vladimir Guerrero will follow him, although Guerrero has a lack of protection in the lineup, something that could result in a decrease in production. The veterans Garrett Anderson and Darin Erstad will most likely follow Vlad, with Juan Rivera, Casey Kotchman, and Adam Kennedy

following. The Angels will also start Jeff Mathis at catcher after losing Benjie Molina. Mathis has only appeared in five major league games, but the Angels are hoping he can take charge and appear in about 120 this year. From the mound, the Angels have Cy Young Award winner Bartolo Colon (although he didn't truly deserve it), with Lackey and Escobar follwing. Thirty-six year old Hector Carrasco will also get a chance to start, with Ervin Santana rounding out the rotation. From the pen, Scot Shields, J.C. Romero, and Brendan Donnelly will create a solid set-up position for Francisco Rodriguez, who is poised for another great season. The Angels will barely make it this year, and if they don't contribute offensively, then they have a slim chance of making the postseason. Their pitching is solid, and other than Vlad, Garrett Anderson, and Figgins, their hitters are just mediocre.

The Breakout Hitter- Chone Figgins: .324, 10 HR, 66 RBIs, 82 SB
The Breakout Pitcher- Francisco Rodriguez: 1.95 ERA, 44 SV


3) Texas Rangers- 76-86

The Texas Rangers are in the club of expansion franchises in the 60s and 70s that haven't won the World Series (others include Seattle, Milwaukee, Washington, and Houston). The Rangers have had great players and coaches such as Nolan Ryan, Jonny Oates, and currently Mark Teixeira, but they haven't been able to make that next step. They were dominant in 1996, 1998, and 1999, but in all three years, they failed to make it past the division series (and we all know who beat them). I like the Rangers and I like their nitty-gritty style of playing, but I still don't think they have what it takes to even reach .500. Offensively, Dellucci could have another solid year at the top of the order, although he hit just .235 after August 1st. Michael Young is one of the most consistent and well-rounded players in the game, putting up amazing numbers once again in 2005 (.334, 24 HR, 91 RBIs). Him and Teixeira are emerging as the leaders of this powerful offense. Blalock, the number four hitter, is very overrated, and he only had 25 home runs in 2005 and a .263 average. After that, there's Kevin Mench, Brad Wilkerson, and Lance Nix. I love Kevin Mench. True, he has the biggest head in the game, but he's one of the rare

players who will give you 25-30 home runs and strike out fewer than 70 times, which is what Mench has done over the past two seasons. Rounding out the order will be catcher Rod Barajas, who has quietly become one of the better catchers in the league. From the mound, the Rangers improved their pitching a bit, but it's still not enough to make much of an impact. Kevin Millwood had a great 2005 with a 2.86 ERA, and he is expected to be the staff ace for years to come. Adam Eaton is their next top pitcher, and after injuries last season, I doubt Eaton will win twelve games. Vincente Padilla, Kameron Loe, and Juan Dominiguez will round out the order, with Joaquin Benoit also a probable fifth starter. From the pen, the Rangers have one good pitcher: Francisco Cordero. This guy has amazing stuff, and he's been less and less recognized every year because of the Rangers mediocre status. This guy is a solid closer who had an amazing 2005, and he's a give-in to strikeout at least 10 or 11 men per nine innings. The other relievers are Otsuka, side-armer Brian Shouse, and R.A. Dickey. With no real set-up man, the bullpen is looking grim, and so is the Rangers' 2006 season.

The Breakout Hitter- Mark Teixeira: .314, 49 HR, 134 RBI
The Breakout Pitcher- Kevin Millwood: 16-9, 3.14 ERA

4) Seattle Mariners- 68-94

Many have been saying that it's "now or never for the Mariner's regime." I say it's never. Once Lou Pinella left the team, I knew they were going downhill, with the only bright spot being Ichiro. And, I have to say, my prediction was right. Since 2002, the Mariners have not been a force whatsoever in the division, as they have sunk from 116 wins all the way to last place. The Mariners do, however, have a gem in Felix Hernandez, and he is really their number one starter. Offensively, the M's have Ichiro, a give-in for 200 hits and a Gold Glove, and Jeremy Reed at the top.

Reed had a .254 average last season, his rookie season, but he is expected to perform well in his sophomore season. Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson are proven power hitters, but Sexson strikes out exponentially and Beltre (who is still only 26) has had just one good year. From there, the Mariners have Everett, Ibanez, and Japanese catcher Kenji Johjma. I've heard positive things about him, but his adaption to America will come before he starts producing. From the mound, the Mariners have old-timer Jamie Moyer and Jarrod Washburn, with phenom Felix Hernandez. The rotation isn't actually that bad, as long as Moyer can stay healthy for another year. The bullpen also has some strong arms, with Eddie Guardado, Rafael Soriano, and Julio Mateo. Like the Angels, I think the Mariners have decent pitching, but their bats are still lacking offense. The 2006 season won't be their year.

The Breakout Hitter- Ichiro Suzuki: .340, 18 HR, 68 RBIs
The Breakout Pitcher- Felix Hernandez: 17-9, 3.78 ERA

And with that, another league has been predicted. Tomorrow, I will move on to the American League East, where there will be surprises in every sort of way. Also, stay tuned for Yankees Spring Training insight and scores and highlights from the WBC.