Predictions For 2006- American League Central

In today's Yankee news, Shawn Chacon will start the first Spring Training game for the Yankees against the Phillies. He is battling for a spot in the rotation, and his performance will decide whether he will be in the bullpen or in the rotation at the start of the year. And now, predictions.

The American League Central was not a competitive league last year, as Chicago completely ran away with first place. A few mishaps led to Cleveland almost taking over first, but Chicago managed to stay atop the division and go on to get a ring. The 2006 season will once again be good to Chicago, as I predict they will win the division, but some teams below them will change, and this will create a huge impact on the rest of the league.

1) Chicago White Sox- 98-64

After 88 years of failing to win the World Series (and nearly fifty of even getting there), the White Sox finally won a ring in 2005. This will propel them to another solid season in 2006. Instead of dismantling, the White Sox made key signings in the offseason such as Jim Thome and Javier Vasquez, and they will once again prove in 2006 that they will win by pitching. Their rotation is arguably the best in the division, and their lineup isn't too shabby either. Once again, they'll have Podsednik and Uribe at the

top of the order, but look for Uribe to be somewhat of a bust in 2006. Konerko, Thome, and Dye will make up the heart of the order, and if Thome stays healthy, all three could hit well over 30 home runs. From there, it will be Iguchi, Pierzynski, and Crede. Pierzynski is a well-rounded catcher who has decent power numbers and
above-average fielding. Rookie Brian Anderson will also patrol center field, taking over for the popular Aaron Rowand. He is a former first-round pick who has the potential to be a nice fit with the White Sox. The rotation has five guys who are simply amazing. Mark Buehrle, who is a workhorse from the mound, and Contreras will be the top pitchers for the White Sox. After a startling postseason, Contreras has an increase in confidence in 2006, something that Contreras has been searching for his entire career. Garcia (26-12 since being traded to the White Sox) and Garland will also add quality starts, with Vasquez as the probable number five starter (he was the number one starter last year with the Diamondbacks. The bullpen lost Damaso Marte, but with Neal Cotts, Cliff Politte, and the hard-throwing Bobby Jenks, the White Sox bullpen will have another solid season in 2006.

The Breakout Hitter- Paul Konerko: .270, 38 HR, 105 RBIs
The Breakout Pitcher- Jose Contreras: 18-6, 3.22 ERA, 176 Ks

2) Cleveland Indians- 87-75

The Indians had their first positive season since 2001 last year, as they were in the middle of a wild wild-card chase (no pun intended). In fact, they almost knocked the White Sox out of first before slumping. In September, they floundered, as they finished the season two games behind the Red Sox in the wild card. The 2006 season is looking bright for the Indians, but I still don't think they have what it takes to make it to the playoffs. Offensively, they have Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta, and Travis Hafner, three players who are young and solid. Hafner hit over 30 home runs in less than 500 at bats last season, and Peralta and Sizemore also coontributed over 20 home runs. The thing I like about Sizemore is that he has a perfect blend of power, speed, plate discipline, and abiliy to hit for average. From there, the Indians have Victor Martinez who has emerged as arguably the best catcher in the American League. From the mound, the Indians have Sabathia, Westbrook, and Lee,

three pitchers who all won over fifteen games last year. Westbrook was an all star in 2004 (and a former Yaknee), and I believe the 2006 season will be his best so far. Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson will round out the rotation, and both pitchers have proven to be above-average in the past. The Indians' bullpen, with Wickman, Rhodes, and Betancourt, is also poised to be one of the best in the league (in fact, the Indians had the best bullpen ERA-wise in 2005). One of the most underrated players they have is the lefty Scott Sauerbaeck, who is a key situational pitcher that was extremely valuable to the team last year. And, after slumping in 2005, Danny Graves is now an Indian; although, he has really been in a free-fall since his 41-save season in 2004. Overall, the Indians have the right formula, but I don't think they're ready for that next step.

The Breakout Hitter- Travis Hafner: .310, 37 HR, 123 RBIs
The Breakout Pitcher- Jake Westbrook: 17-9, 3.41 ERA

3)Minnesota Twins- 80-82

The Twins have been on the decline since 2004. After three consecutive playoff appearances from 2002-2004, the Twins had a lackluster season in 2005, going just 83-79. This was mainly due to 1) Torii Hunter's season-ending injury and 2) No power. The Twins had just two players (Justin Mourneau and Jacque Jones) hit over twenty home runs, and the next highest was twelve by Michael Cuddyer. And, you'd think they'd make up for hit by average, but they didn't. No one hit over .300. The Twins are continually spiraling downhill, and after a negative offseason, they are looking like a sub-.500 team entering 2006. Although they made key signings to Luis Castillo and Rondell White, the Twins lost a big franchise player in Jacque Jones. Their lineup has Shannon Stewart and Luis Castillo at the top. Stewart can hit .300, but he had a so-so 2005, and Castillo is overrated. He had great seasons in the late 90s and early 00s, but after surgery on his knees, Castillo's speed and offense has decreased. He will not steal over 25 bases in 2006, and look for him to hit in the .260s range. Catcher Joe Mauer is really the only bright spot in the order. Rondell White will most likely bat cleanup, and he has had on-and-off seasons, so at tihs point, I have no idea how he'll do. From there, the Twins will have Mourneau,

Hunter, and Tony Batista at third. It's just not that good of a lineup, in my opinion, and they don't have the spark that other teams do. Their pitching, specifically their starting pitching, is a little better. Johan Santana is one of the best pitchers in the game, although I don't think he'll be able to win games because of lack of run support. Last year, he had a better ERA, WHIP, batting average against, and more strikeouts than Cy Young Award winner Bartolo Colon, but the reason he didn't get the award was because he was just 16-7 (similar to Clemens in the National League, who went 13-8 but had a 1.87 ERA). Carlos Silva, Brad Radke, and Kyle Lohse will branch off from Santana, and the young Francisco Liriano has a spot at the number five position (many think he's a younger version of Santana). The bullpen is above-average, with Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain setting up for the stellar Joe Nathan. Overall, I don't think the Twins can do it in 2006, but they're sure as heck better than the next two teams to come.

The Breakout Hitter- Justin Mourneau: .273, 40 HR, 117 RBIs
The Breakout Pitcher- Johan Santana: 15-6, 2.92 ERA

4) Detroit Tigers- 70-92

Since their last World Series win in 1984, the Tigers have really been a joke. Although they improved somewhat in 2005, they still don't have what it takes in this division to even compete. Jim Leyland, taking over for Allen Trammel, is a proven World Series winner, but just as Larry Brown has done with the Knicks, I doubt he'll have much of an impact. One of their brightest spots is first baseman Chris Shelton, who was just one hit shy of hitting .300 in his rookie season. Offensively, the Tigers have Placido Polanco, an excellent hitter, at the top of the order (Polanco hit .338 with Detroit last year and struck out just 25 times in over 500 at bats), and Carlos Guillen, another solid .300 hitter. Pudge is getting older, and I think this will be his last true definitive year. Magglio Ordonez had some great years in Chicago, but his bat isn't what it used to be, and his power numbers have decreased. Dmitri Young

often times explodes in the beginning of the year, but he usually has a horrible second half (15 percent of his home runs in 2005 came on Opening Day, when he hit three). After Shelton in the sixth spot, the Tigers have Inge, Craig Monroe, and possibly rookie Curtis Granderson, who shined in 47 big-league games last year. The Tigers also have Nook Logan, a medocre player, who hasn't reached the potential of his brother, Cranny. However, like many teams, the Tigers lack pitching. They acquired the veteran Kenny Rogers, but unless he's expecting to pummel the Detroit cameramen, I don't think he'll have a very good year. Jeremy Bonderman can't win games (he's lost more games in the last two years than any other pitcher except for teammate Mike Maroth), but his stuff is very good, as he often gets his fastball in the high 90s. Mike Maroth is 18 games under .500 in his career, and he's just a below-average pitcher. Nate Robertson is just, well, bad. And, the fifth starter is still in quesiton, but it will most liekly be Justin Verlander, who had an ERA above seven in 2005. The Tigers' bullpen has veterans Todd Jones and Matt Mantei, but the others (Roman Colon, Chris Spurling, Fernando Rodney, and Jamie Walker) are just okay. I do think the Tigers have the right players, but they need to improve their pitching to really make the next step, which is to reach .500.

The Breakout Hitter- Placido Polanco: .334, 15 HR, 67 RBIs
The Breakout Pitcher- Jeremy Bonderman: 14-12, 185 K's

5) Kansas City Royals- 57-105

Well, since the Royals still have the nerve to put players on the field, I'll give them a one win improvement in 2006, which shows how bad their 2005 season was. The Royals are definitely the worst team in baseball (their cleanup hitter is Emil Brown), and while some teams have good hitting and bad pitcihng and vice versa, the Royals are lacking in both. Offensively, the Royals improved in the offseason by acuiring outfielder Reggie Sanders and infielder Mark Grudzielanek, but they failed to improve in their pitching. The order will have DeJesus leading off, with Sanders, Sweeney, and Emil Brown after that. Next will probably be Grudzielanek and

Doug Mientkiewicz, showing that the one thing the Royals did do was get players whose names are long and impossible to spell. After that, Mark Teahen and former rookie of the year Angel Berroa will take their hacks, with catcher John Buck most likely rounding out the order. From the mound, the Royals' number one starter will be seventeen-game loser Zack Greinke. After that, it will most likely be Joe Mays, Scott Elarton, and Mark Redman. Yhe thing about these three guys is that they've all had one good year, and the rest have been bad. If these three guys come together to pitch like they did in their one good season, the Royals have a shot at .500. Although, I doubt that will happen. The bullpen has some great names. Ambiorix Burgos and Andrew Sisco are up-and-coming relievers who will most likely be on the team in 2006. Mike MacDougal and Jeremy Affeldt, however, will probably be the main guys from the bullpen. With my prediction of 57 wins, all I can say is that it's another rebuilding year in Kansas City.

The Breakout Hitter- Mike Sweeney: .294, 24 HR, 86 RBIs
The Breakout Pitcher- Scott Elarton: 10-10, 4.43 ERA

So, with the American League Central predictions in the book, it looks as if this league will be somewhat competitive, but in the end, Chicago will run away with the division title. Tomorrow will be the American League West predictions, which in my opinion will be the most competitive American League Division in 2006.